Low-Beer D, Stoneburner R L, Mukulu A
Department of Geography, Cambridge University, England.
Nat Med. 1997 May;3(5):553-7. doi: 10.1038/nm0597-553.
Despite considerable speculation on the demographic impact of AIDS, there has been, until now, little scientific evidence to establish its existence or scale. Because of the widespread implications of these predictions, methods to combine demography and epidemiology to study empirical situations have been an urgent priority. This study derives the extent and mechanisms of demographic impacts of AIDS from routine data (the 1991 census) in a severely affected country, Uganda. Three characteristics are of particular note: first, the emergence of demographic impacts much earlier than previously estimated; second, their localization with negative population growth at parish but not at district or national scales; third, a greater impact on the number of children than previously predicted, due as much to changes in population fertility as mortality. The emergence of demographic impacts at this stage highlights original aspects of the interdependence of HIV infection and demographic growth not previously recorded and the need to target preventive interventions to youth in developing countries.
尽管对于艾滋病对人口结构的影响存在诸多猜测，但直到现在，几乎没有科学证据能证实其存在或规模。鉴于这些预测具有广泛影响，将人口统计学与流行病学相结合以研究实际情况的方法一直是当务之急。本研究从艾滋病严重肆虐的国家乌干达的常规数据（1991年人口普查）中，推导艾滋病对人口结构影响的程度和机制。有三个特征尤其值得注意：其一，人口结构影响的出现比先前预计的要早得多；其二，其呈现局部化，教区出现人口负增长，而地区或国家层面并未出现；其三，对儿童数量的影响比先前预测的更大，这在很大程度上归因于人口生育率和死亡率的变化。现阶段人口结构影响的出现凸显了艾滋病毒感染与人口增长相互依存关系中此前未被记录的新情况，以及在发展中国家针对青年群体开展预防性干预措施的必要性。
