Kilpatrick S J
Health Serv Res. 1977 Fall;12(3):284-98.
Some models of the process by which individuals seek medical care suggest the negative binomial as the underlying distribution of the frequencies of consultations in a given practice. Data from the 1970-71 National Morbidity Survey of General Practice are used to test these competing models. It is shown that the negative binomial distribution successfully fits consultation frequencies in aggregate and in subdivisions according to age, sex, and duration of registration. In this article is is assumed that the consultation process has two components: the patient's decision to visit his doctor for a new illness and the follow-up visits that results from this new problem. Supplementing previous evidence that the distribution of episodes of new illnesses follows a negative binomial distribution, this article shows that consultation frequencies among individuals presenting with one new illness also follow a negative binomial distribution. A unifying model is required to synthesize these findings.
一些关于个人寻求医疗护理过程的模型表明，负二项分布是特定医疗机构中会诊频率的潜在分布。1970 - 71年全国全科医疗发病率调查的数据被用于检验这些相互竞争的模型。结果表明，负二项分布成功地拟合了总体会诊频率以及按年龄、性别和注册时长细分的会诊频率。在本文中，假设会诊过程有两个组成部分：患者因新疾病决定去看医生以及由这个新问题导致的后续就诊。补充了之前关于新疾病发作分布遵循负二项分布的证据，本文表明，患有一种新疾病的个体的会诊频率也遵循负二项分布。需要一个统一的模型来综合这些发现。
