Bjarnason S, Köhler B
Department of Pedodontics, Faculty of Odontology, University of Göteborg, Sweden.
Swed Dent J. 1997;21(1-2):41-8.
Detailed caries records and salivary microbiological tests were utilized to predict caries development in a group of 15-16-year-old Swedish adolescents. Both, caries experience and salivary microorganisms, correlated significantly with a subsequent 3-year increment of DFS. The strongest associations were recorded between the prevalence of baseline incipient lesions and the development of manifest caries (r = 0.51). Incipient lesions accounted for 27% of the 31% variability in the DFS increment explained by joined caries and salivary data. All predictors analysed showed insufficient sensitivity for identifying true caries active individuals. However, the combined sensitivity and specificity for incipient lesions and comprehensive caries record (incipient + manifest lesions) attained values allowing to predict caries development in the majority of individuals. Using precavity lesions as a sole predictor, 79-81% of the individuals were correctly classified with regard to their future caries levels. The addition of manifest caries increased the accuracy of classification to 86-89% depending on the stringency of screening and validation criteria.
详细的龋齿记录和唾液微生物学检测被用于预测一组15 - 16岁瑞典青少年的龋齿发展情况。龋齿经历和唾液微生物与随后3年DFS的增加均显著相关。基线初期损害的患病率与明显龋齿的发展之间记录到最强的关联（r = 0.51）。初期损害占龋齿和唾液数据联合解释的DFS增加量31%变异中的27%。所有分析的预测指标对识别真正的龋齿活跃个体的敏感性均不足。然而，初期损害和综合龋齿记录（初期 + 明显损害）的联合敏感性和特异性达到了能够在大多数个体中预测龋齿发展的值。将龋洞前期损害作为唯一预测指标时，79 - 81%的个体在未来龋齿水平方面被正确分类。根据筛查和验证标准的严格程度，加入明显龋齿后分类准确率提高到86 - 89%。
