Laniak G F, Droppo J G, Faillace E R, Gnanapragasam E K, Mills W B, Strenge D L, Whelan G, Yu C
United State Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research & Development, Athens, Georgia 30605, USA.
Risk Anal. 1997 Apr;17(2):203-14. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00859.x.
Multimedia modelers from the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the United States Department of Energy (DOE) collaborated to conduct a detailed and quantitative benchmarking analysis of three multimedia models. The three models--RESRAD (DOE), MMSOILS (EPA), and MEPAS (DOE)--represent analytically-based tools that are used by the respective agencies for performing human exposure and health risk assessments. The study is performed by individuals who participate directly in the ongoing design, development, and application of the models. Model form and function are compared by applying the models to a series of hypothetical problems, first isolating individual modules (e.g., atmospheric, surface water, groundwater) and then simulating multimedia-based risk resulting from contaminant release from a single source to multiple environmental media. Study results show that the models differ with respect to environmental processes included (i.e., model features) and the mathematical formulation and assumptions related to the implementation of solutions. Depending on the application, numerical estimates resulting from the models may vary over several orders-of-magnitude. On the other hand, two or more differences may offset each other such that model predictions are virtually equal. The conclusion from these results is that multimedia models are complex due to the integration of the many components of a risk assessment and this complexity must be fully appreciated during each step of the modeling process (i.e., model selection, problem conceptualization, model application, and interpretation of results).
来自美国环境保护局（EPA）和美国能源部（DOE）的多媒体建模人员合作，对三种多媒体模型进行了详细的定量基准分析。这三种模型——RESRAD（DOE）、MMSOILS（EPA）和MEPAS（DOE）——代表了基于分析的工具，各机构使用这些工具进行人体暴露和健康风险评估。该研究由直接参与模型的持续设计、开发和应用的人员进行。通过将模型应用于一系列假设问题来比较模型的形式和功能，首先分离各个模块（例如，大气、地表水、地下水），然后模拟从单一源向多种环境介质释放污染物所产生的基于多媒体的风险。研究结果表明，这些模型在包括的环境过程（即模型特征）以及与解决方案实施相关的数学公式和假设方面存在差异。根据应用情况，模型得出的数值估计可能相差几个数量级。另一方面，两个或多个差异可能相互抵消，从而使模型预测几乎相等。这些结果得出的结论是，由于风险评估的许多组成部分相互整合，多媒体模型很复杂，在建模过程的每个步骤（即模型选择、问题概念化、模型应用和结果解释）中都必须充分认识到这种复杂性。
