Stanley J C
Section of Vascular Surgery, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA.
Semin Vasc Surg. 1997 Jun;10(2):65-71.
An adequate workforce is requisite for efficient and quality surgical care of patients having vascular disease. Data from 1985 and 1992 United States workforce studies provide the basis for certain projections. Vascular surgeons performed 41% of vascular operations in 1985 and 51% in 1992. The basis for this change seems related to the fact that younger general surgeons are less likely to practice vascular surgery than retiring senior general surgeons, whom they are replacing, and vascular surgeons have assumed the care of patients usually treated by the latter group of surgeons. Our aging society compounds this change. Patients older than 65 years will exhibit a 73% increase from 2010 to 2030, with a subsequent greater need for more vascular operations, which are predicted to be 1,020,067 in 2020, compared with 583,000 in 1992. A larger workforce will be required to meet this need. Although innovative technology and changes in health care delivery may cause unpredictable changes in these anticipated workforce needs, the potential exists that there will be insufficient numbers of surgeons available to provide adequate surgical care early in the next century, unless changes occur in the training and practice of general and vascular surgeons.
对于患有血管疾病的患者而言，充足的医疗人员是提供高效优质外科护理的必要条件。1985年和1992年美国医疗人员研究的数据为某些预测提供了依据。1985年，血管外科医生实施了41%的血管手术，1992年这一比例为51%。这一变化的原因似乎与以下事实有关：年轻的普通外科医生比即将退休的资深普通外科医生更不愿意从事血管外科手术，而年轻医生正逐渐取代这些资深医生，并且血管外科医生已开始负责通常由后一组医生治疗的患者。我们老龄化的社会加剧了这一变化。65岁以上的患者数量从2010年到2030年将增加73%，随后对更多血管手术的需求也会更大，预计2020年的血管手术量将达到1,020,067例，而1992年为583,000例。需要更多的医疗人员来满足这一需求。尽管创新技术和医疗服务提供方式的变化可能会导致这些预期的医疗人员需求发生不可预测的变化，但在下个世纪初，除非普通外科医生和血管外科医生的培训与实践发生改变，否则可能会出现外科医生数量不足，无法提供足够外科护理的情况。
