The changing vascular surgery workforce.

An adequate workforce is requisite for efficient and quality surgical care of patients having vascular disease. Data from 1985 and 1992 United States workforce studies provide the basis for certain projections. Vascular surgeons performed 41% of vascular operations in 1985 and 51% in 1992. The basis for this change seems related to the fact that younger general surgeons are less likely to practice vascular surgery than retiring senior general surgeons, whom they are replacing, and vascular surgeons have assumed the care of patients usually treated by the latter group of surgeons. Our aging society compounds this change. Patients older than 65 years will exhibit a 73% increase from 2010 to 2030, with a subsequent greater need for more vascular operations, which are predicted to be 1,020,067 in 2020, compared with 583,000 in 1992. A larger workforce will be required to meet this need. Although innovative technology and changes in health care delivery may cause unpredictable changes in these anticipated workforce needs, the potential exists that there will be insufficient numbers of surgeons available to provide adequate surgical care early in the next century, unless changes occur in the training and practice of general and vascular surgeons.