Garenne M, Friedberg F
Directeur de Recherche, CEPED, Paris, France.
Stud Fam Plann. 1997 Jun;28(2):132-42.
A simulation model was developed to test the accuracy of indirect estimates of maternal mortality (the sisterhood method). The model generated a first generation of grandmothers, a second generation of mothers (with brothers and sisters), and a third generation of children (births). In the second generation, maternal mortality was introduced. Empirical values for the parameters of fertility and mortality were taken from a prospective survey in Senegal (Niakhar). Results based on 100 simulations of the same situation revealed several limitations of the sisterhood method: The indirect estimates could fall as far as 33 percent from the true values on individual cases; the indirect estimates tended to be systematically higher than the direct estimates; their range was wider, as were their confidence intervals; and biases were particularly strong for the younger age groups of respondents. Reasons for these biases are explored.
开发了一个模拟模型来测试孕产妇死亡率间接估计方法（姐妹法）的准确性。该模型生成了第一代祖母、第二代母亲（有兄弟姐妹）和第三代子女（出生情况）。在第二代中引入了孕产妇死亡率。生育和死亡率参数的经验值取自塞内加尔（尼亚卡尔）的一项前瞻性调查。基于对相同情况进行100次模拟的结果揭示了姐妹法的几个局限性：在个别案例中，间接估计值可能比真实值低33%；间接估计值往往系统性地高于直接估计值；其范围和置信区间都更宽；并且对于较年轻年龄组的受访者，偏差尤为明显。本文探讨了这些偏差产生的原因。
