Predictors of mortality in subjects hospitalized with acute lower respiratory tract infections.

OBJECTIVE

To identify the predictors of mortality due to acute lower respiratory tract infection (ALRI).

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Urban tertiary care teaching hospital.

METHODS

201 cases with ALRI between 2 weeks to 5 years of age were prospectively enrolled and followed up to determine outcome. Detailed history and clinical evaluation were recorded on a pretested proforma. Significant independent predictors of mortality were determined by comparison of dead subjects (n = 21) with surviving children (n = 180) in a multiple logistic analytic framework.

RESULTS

The case fatality rate (CFR) was 10.45%. Significant independent predictors of mortality were (OR, 95% CI) age less than 1 year (23.1, 2.7-197.5), inability to feed (6.2, 1.3-30.7), associated loose stools (5.1,1.2-27.3), weight for age Z score < -3 (3.9,1.01-9.7), short duration of fever (1.2,1.0-1.5) and bandemia (1.1,1.05-1.2). The WHO guidelines identified 91% of children diagnosed as ALRI by clinical and investigative criteria. The CFR was related to severity of WHO classification ("pneumonia"-0%, "severe pneumonia"-8.7% and "very severe pneumonia"-47.0%). However, 2 of the 18 subjects with a diagnosis of "no pneumonia" expired (CFR 11.1% and 10% of total mortality).

CONCLUSION

Even in settings of high case fatality, predictors of mortality can be identified in under five children suffering from ALRI. In this context, age below 1 year, inability to feed, presence of loose stools and severe malnutrition merit attention for interventional purposes.