Ferrer Evangelista D, Ballester Díez F, Pérez-Hoyos S, Igual Adell R, Fluixá Carrascosa C, Fullana Monllor J
Institut Valencià d'Estudis en Salut Pública (IVESP), Hospital Sant Francesc de Borja, Gandia.
Gac Sanit. 1997 May-Jun;11(3):115-21. doi: 10.1016/s0213-9111(97)71286-x.
To determine as accurately as possible the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis within Health Area 15 of the Community of Valencia during the period 1990-1993, using the capture-recapture method.
Descriptive study on the population of Health Area 15 (population: -139.903) divided into 4 large groups according to age (0-14, 15-34, 34-54 and 55+). Data was obtained from the statutory notification system of infectious disease (SNSID) and from the registry of the said area's Hospital Microbiology SERVICE: The main variable under study was the number of cases of pulmonary tuberculosis, both as notified under the SNSID and in terms of cases in the microbiology register in which M. tuberculosis was isolated. The incidence-rates were calculated by age and year of study for both registries employing the capture-recapture method.
The mean annual incidence obtained for the SNSID register during the study period was 15.85 cases x 10(-5), and for the microbiology registry it was 23.29 x 10(-5). When the capture-recapture method was employed the mean annual incidence for the study period was 34.81 x 10(-5) (CI 95%: 31.82-39.92). In each of the years studied the number of cases identified was greater for the microbiology register than for the SNSID. Around half the cases of tuberculosis are below 34 years of age, with the larger section, and that having the highest incidence of tuberculosis being the 15 to 34 years age-group. There is no apparent upward trend in incidence rates calculated for this period.
The data from the SNSID system on incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis within Health Area 15 of the Community of Valencia tends to underestimate the true incidence rate. The factual resources of the Hospital Microbiology Service are underutilized, considering the quantity and quality of information it can provide. The capture-recapture method is a good choice of method for measuring tuberculosis incidence. This method merits greater use within the field of epidemiology as much in order to assess the representativeness and thoroughness of surveillance systems as to identify inadequacies in their reporting and localisation of disease outbreaks.
采用捕获 - 再捕获法尽可能准确地确定1990 - 1993年期间巴伦西亚自治区第15卫生区肺结核的发病率。
对第15卫生区的人口（人口数：-139,903）进行描述性研究，根据年龄分为4个大组（0 - 14岁、15 - 34岁、34 - 54岁和55岁以上）。数据来自传染病法定报告系统（SNSID）以及该地区医院微生物学服务登记处：主要研究变量为肺结核病例数，包括SNSID报告的病例数以及微生物学登记中分离出结核分枝杆菌的病例数。采用捕获 - 再捕获法按年龄和研究年份计算两个登记处的发病率。
研究期间SNSID登记处获得的年平均发病率为15.85例×10⁻⁵，微生物学登记处为23.29×10⁻⁵。采用捕获 - 再捕获法时，研究期间的年平均发病率为34.81×10⁻⁵（95%置信区间：31.82 - 39.92）。在各研究年份中，微生物学登记处识别出的病例数均多于SNSID。约一半的结核病例年龄在34岁以下，其中占比最大且发病率最高的是15至34岁年龄组。该时期计算出的发病率无明显上升趋势。
巴伦西亚自治区第15卫生区肺结核发病率的SNSID系统数据往往低估了真实发病率。考虑到医院微生物学服务能提供的信息数量和质量，其实际资源未得到充分利用。捕获 - 再捕获法是测量结核病发病率的良好方法选择。该方法在流行病学领域应更多地使用，既用于评估监测系统的代表性和全面性，也用于识别疾病报告及疫情定位中的不足。
