Török T J, Kilgore P E, Clarke M J, Holman R C, Bresee J S, Glass R I
Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
Pediatr Infect Dis J. 1997 Oct;16(10):941-6. doi: 10.1097/00006454-199710000-00007.
Rotavirus is the leading cause of severe pediatric gastroenteritis worldwide. A vaccine may soon be licensed for use in the United States to prevent this disease. To characterize US geographic and temporal trends in rotavirus activity, we made contour maps showing the timing of peak rotavirus activity.
From July, 1991, through June, 1996, 79 laboratories participating in the National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System reported on a weekly basis the number of stool specimens that tested positive for rotavirus. The peak weeks in rotavirus detections from each laboratory were mapped using kriging, a modeling technique originally developed for geostatistics.
During the 5-year period 118,716 fecal specimens were examined, of which 27,616 (23%) were positive for rotavirus. Timing of rotavirus activity varied by geographic location in a characteristic pattern in which peak activity occurred first in the Southwest from October through December and last in the Northeast in April or May. The Northwest exhibited considerable year-to-year variability (range, December to May) in the timing of peak activity, whereas the temporal pattern in the remainder of the contiguous 48 states was relatively constant.
Kriging is a useful method for visualizing geographic and temporal trends in rotavirus activity in the United States. This analysis confirmed trends reported in previous years, and it also identified unexpected variability in the timing of peak rotavirus activity in the Northwest. The causes of the seasonal differences in rotavirus activity by region are unknown. Tracking of laboratory detections of rotavirus may provide an effective surveillance tool to assess the impact of a rotavirus vaccination campaign in the United States.
轮状病毒是全球范围内导致儿童严重肠胃炎的主要病因。一种疫苗可能很快会在美国获批用于预防这种疾病。为了描述美国轮状病毒活动的地理和时间趋势，我们绘制了等高线图以显示轮状病毒活动高峰的时间。
从1991年7月至1996年6月，参与国家呼吸道和肠道病毒监测系统的79个实验室每周报告检测出轮状病毒呈阳性的粪便标本数量。使用克里金法（一种最初为地质统计学开发的建模技术）绘制每个实验室轮状病毒检测高峰周的地图。
在这5年期间，共检查了118,716份粪便标本，其中27,616份（23%）轮状病毒呈阳性。轮状病毒活动的时间因地理位置而异，呈现出一种特征性模式，即活动高峰首先出现在西南部，时间为10月至12月，最后出现在东北部，时间为4月或5月。西北部在高峰活动时间上表现出相当大的逐年变化（范围为12月至5月），而相邻48个州其他地区的时间模式相对稳定。
克里金法是一种用于直观呈现美国轮状病毒活动地理和时间趋势的有用方法。该分析证实了前几年报告的趋势，同时也发现了西北部轮状病毒活动高峰时间出人意料的变化。轮状病毒活动按地区季节性差异的原因尚不清楚。追踪实验室对轮状病毒的检测可能为评估美国轮状病毒疫苗接种运动的影响提供一种有效的监测工具。
