Besancenot J P, Boko M, Oke P C
Climat et Santé, Faculté de Médecine, Dijon, France.
Eur J Epidemiol. 1997 Oct;13(7):807-15. doi: 10.1023/a:1007365919013.
Over a 28-year period cerebrospinal meningitis, in sporadic as well as epidemic situations, mainly affected the Beninese territory from November to March, April or sometimes May. On the average, the acme occurred in February-March. A regression analysis confirmed that 14 to 34.5% of the temporal variability of the disease was due to the northern trade wind (harmattan) and a low absolute humidity in the northern areas, which constitute the main epidemiological pole of the country. On the contrary, cerebrospinal meningitis and climate turned out to be fully independent one from the other in the southernmost areas, where the harmattan is seldom experienced although the meningitis belt is at the present time spreading southwards. But the case-fatality ratio was especially high in the coastal region and during the off season, i.e. when endemic meningitis predominantly affected small children aged under one year. In any way, the climate-meningitis relationship proved to be weaker than is sometimes assumed, perhaps because this relationship is partly overshadowed by both anthropic effects (vaccination campaigns) and latency before disease outbreak.
在28年的时间里，散发性和流行性脑脊髓膜炎主要在11月至3月、4月或有时5月影响贝宁地区。平均而言，发病高峰出现在2月至3月。回归分析证实，该疾病14%至34.5%的时间变异性归因于北部信风（哈马丹风）以及该国主要流行病高发区北部地区的低绝对湿度。相反，在最南部地区，尽管脑膜炎带目前正在向南蔓延，但很少经历哈马丹风，结果表明脑脊髓膜炎与气候完全独立。但在沿海地区以及非流行季节，即地方性脑膜炎主要影响1岁以下幼儿时，病死率尤其高。无论如何，气候与脑膜炎之间的关系被证明比有时认为的要弱，这可能是因为这种关系部分地被人为因素（疫苗接种运动）和疾病爆发前的潜伏期所掩盖。
