Chalmers I, Zlosnik J E, Johns K A, Campbell H
Br Med J. 1976 Mar 27;1(6012):735-8. doi: 10.1136/bmj.1.6012.735.
Trends in management and outcome of pregnancy in Cardiff residents from 1965 to 1973 were reviewed. The mean age and parity of parturients fell. Hospital delivery became almost universal, monitoring the fetus during pregnancy was introduced, and induction and acceleration of labour became commonplace. These developments were not associated with any striking change in either the total perinatal death rate or the timing or cause of perinatal death. Possibly a real change in perinatal mortality between 1965 and 1973 was masked by random fluctuation of small numbers, or possibly factors peculiar to the Cardiff population prevented a decrease in perinatal mortality that would otherwise have resulted from improved medical care. Only by large-scale randomised trials can the true value of induction and other medical developments be assessed.
回顾了1965年至1973年加的夫居民的妊娠管理及结局趋势。产妇的平均年龄和胎次下降。医院分娩几乎普及，孕期开始对胎儿进行监测，引产和催产变得常见。这些进展与围产期总死亡率、围产期死亡时间或原因的任何显著变化均无关联。1965年至1973年期间围产期死亡率的真正变化可能被小数量的随机波动所掩盖，或者加的夫人群特有的因素阻止了本可因医疗护理改善而带来的围产期死亡率下降。只有通过大规模随机试验才能评估引产及其他医学进展的真正价值。
