Colletti R B, Winter H S, Sokol R J, Suchy F J, Klish W J, Durie P R
Department of Pediatrics, University of Vermont College of Medicine, Burlington, USA.
J Pediatr Gastroenterol Nutr. 1998 Jan;26(1):106-15. doi: 10.1097/00005176-199801000-00018.
The North American Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition (NASPGN) performed a Workforce Survey to determine the current number and distribution of pediatric gastroenterologists in the United States and Canada and to estimate the supply and demand in the future in the United States.
The response rate was more than 90%. There were 624 pediatric gastroenterologists in the United States, and 48 in Canada.
There were 2.4 pediatric gastroenterologists per million population in the United States, ranging from 3.1 per million in the Northeast to 1.9 per million in the West, and 1.6 per million in Canada. In the United States, fewer than 5 pediatric gastroenterologists retire each year, but more than 40 fellows per year complete training. In the United States, 30% of pediatric gastroenterologists believe there is already an excess supply; only 12% believe there is a shortage (p < 0.001).
If the number of fellows who complete training each year remains unchanged, in 10 years there will be more than 950 pediatric gastroenterologists in the United States (3.3 per million population). At the same time, if the demand for pediatric gastroenterologists remains 2.4 per million population, there will be a demand for only 675. If these assumptions are correct, it is necessary to reduce the number of fellows to be trained. Although it is difficult to predict future workforce needs reliably, we recommend that the number of fellowship positions in training programs in the United States be reduced by 50% to 75%. Changes in health care in the coming years will be challenging, and effective planning is necessary for pediatric gastroenterologists to achieve their clinical, research, and educational missions.
北美儿科胃肠病学与营养学会（NASPGN）开展了一项劳动力调查，以确定美国和加拿大儿科胃肠病学家的当前数量及分布情况，并预估美国未来的供需状况。
回复率超过90%。美国有624名儿科胃肠病学家，加拿大有48名。
美国每百万人口中有2.4名儿科胃肠病学家，东北部为每百万3.1名，西部为每百万1.9名，加拿大为每百万1.6名。在美国，每年退休的儿科胃肠病学家不到5名，但每年有超过40名研究员完成培训。在美国，30%的儿科胃肠病学家认为供应已过剩；只有12%的人认为存在短缺（p<0.001）。
如果每年完成培训的研究员数量保持不变，10年后美国将有超过950名儿科胃肠病学家（每百万人口3.3名）。与此同时，如果对儿科胃肠病学家的需求保持在每百万人口2.4名，那么需求量仅为675名。如果这些假设正确，就有必要减少待培训的研究员数量。尽管难以可靠地预测未来劳动力需求，但我们建议将美国培训项目中的研究员职位数量减少50%至75%。未来几年医疗保健方面的变化将具有挑战性，儿科胃肠病学家要实现其临床、研究和教育使命，有效的规划是必要的。
