Alexander D
Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusettts, Amherst 01003-5820, USA.
Disasters. 1997 Dec;21(4):284-304. doi: 10.1111/1467-7717.00064.
As part of a series of papers to mark the 21st year of publication of Disasters, it is opportune to consider some of the changes that have occurred in the field it has covered so diligently for the last two decades. The paper begins with a brief review of the major natural disasters during this period and assesses their impact. It then considers the problem of how to define two key concepts: natural disaster and vulnerability, which remains an open question. The latter is one of the key determinants of the former. Next comes a review of what has occurred in the disasters field since the journal began publication, including some notes on the rise in vulnerability, the information technology revolution and the dilemmas of hazard mitigation. The following two sections assess, respectively, what hoped-for developments did not occur during the period studied and what assets were lost in the name of progress. For example, on the theoretical front, academic over-specialisation has predominated, while on the practical side there has been insufficient transfer of technology to where it is needed. The paper concludes that analyses of disaster need to become more sophisticated and multi-disciplinary and must take account of several forms of context within which developments take place.
作为纪念《灾难》杂志创刊21周年系列论文的一部分，现在正是时候来思考一下在过去二十年里它一直勤勉报道的领域所发生的一些变化。本文首先简要回顾了这一时期的主要自然灾害，并评估了它们的影响。接着，本文探讨了如何定义两个关键概念的问题：自然灾害和脆弱性，这仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。后者是前者的关键决定因素之一。接下来回顾了自该期刊创刊以来灾害领域所发生的事情，包括一些关于脆弱性增加、信息技术革命以及减灾困境的笔记。以下两个部分分别评估了在所研究的时期内未出现的预期发展以及以进步之名失去的资产。例如，在理论方面，学术过度专业化占主导地位，而在实践方面，技术向需求地的转移不足。本文的结论是，对灾害的分析需要变得更加精细和多学科，并必须考虑到发展所发生的几种背景形式。
