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降雨在蜱传脑炎流行病学中的可能作用。

Possible role of rainfall in the epidemiology of tick-borne encephalitis.

作者信息

Danielová V, Benes C

机构信息

National Institute of Public Health, Prague, Czech Republic.

出版信息

Cent Eur J Public Health. 1997 Dec;5(4):151-4.

PMID:9457410
Abstract

The assumption that the amount of rainfall in the summer months influences the frequency of TBE is based on the fact that the determining factor for the existence, development and activity of Ixodes ricinus is relative air humidity (RH) and the finding that low RH negatively influences dynamics of infection and infection rate of I. ricinus with TBE virus. A higher incidence of TBE then develops due to the coincidence of increased activity of ticks and recreational activity of humans after an intense prolonged rainfall. This presumption was verified by comparing the dynamics of rainfall as an indicator of RH in the tick environment with concomitant seasonal fluctuations of TBE incidence in humans. The total monthly rainfall in two regions of the Czech Republic was compared with data on the incidence of TBE in each respective region and period. Furthermore, in the district of Ceské Budĕjovice, typical by high prevalence of this disease, a detailed follow-up was carried out by decades. The comparisons were made between April and October from 1993 to 1995. The values of both variables were related to their long-term averages estimated within each particular period and region. Monthly data were analyzed for the Central Bohemian Region and the South Bohemian Region, both with a high incidence of TBE. The July above-average incidence of TBE was preceded by an above-average rainfall in June. If there was a below-average rainfall, there was a below-average incidence of TBE afterwards. Whenever, there was an above-average rainfall in August then there was an above average incidence of TBE in September, in the opposite case, no September peak of TBE occurred. The follow-up at ten-day intervals shows that any above-average rainfall was followed by an increased incidence of TBE, in every other ten-day period or two. This time shift is due to the incubation period, and partly also to the scattered attacks by ticks during the period of increased RH. The relationship found could be useful for the short-term prognosis of TBE incidence as well as for individual prevention of this serious infection by taking special care when going outdoors after heavy rain.

摘要

夏季降雨量影响蜱传脑炎(TBE)发病频率这一假设基于以下事实:蓖麻硬蜱生存、发育和活动的决定性因素是相对空气湿度(RH),以及低RH对蓖麻硬蜱感染TBE病毒的感染动态和感染率有负面影响。在长时间强降雨后,蜱虫活动增加与人类休闲活动同时发生,进而导致TBE发病率升高。通过将蜱虫生存环境中作为RH指标的降雨动态与人类TBE发病率的季节性波动进行比较,验证了这一假设。将捷克共和国两个地区的月总降雨量与各地区及各时期的TBE发病率数据进行了比较。此外,在该病高发的捷克布杰约维采地区,进行了长达数十年的详细跟踪调查。比较了1993年至1995年4月至10月的数据。两个变量的值均与每个特定时期和地区内估计的长期平均值相关。对蜱传脑炎高发的中波希米亚地区和南波希米亚地区的月度数据进行了分析。TBE在7月高于平均发病率之前,6月降雨量高于平均水平。如果降雨量低于平均水平,随后TBE发病率也低于平均水平。每当8月降雨量高于平均水平时,9月TBE发病率就高于平均水平,反之则不会出现9月TBE发病高峰。每隔十天的跟踪调查表明,任何高于平均水平的降雨之后,每隔一个或两个十天期TBE发病率都会增加。这种时间上的延迟是由于潜伏期,部分也是由于在RH升高期间蜱虫的分散叮咬。所发现的这种关系对于TBE发病率的短期预测以及通过在大雨后外出时特别小心来个人预防这种严重感染可能有用。

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