Doering S, Müller E, Köpcke W, Pietzcker A, Gaebel W, Linden M, Müller P, Müller-Spahn F, Tegeler J, Schüssler G
Department of Psychological Medicine and Psychotherapy, Leopold-Franzens-Universität, Innsbruck, Austria.
Schizophr Bull. 1998;24(1):87-98. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.schbul.a033316.
In a German multicenter treatment study, 354 patients with schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder were followed for 2 years. The data collected were taken as a basis for the present predictor study. For the first time, the technique of classification and regression tree (CART) analysis has been employed for this purpose. CART yielded informative data and appeared to be a useful instrument in predictor research. On the outcome variables "relapse" and "rehospitalization," significant predictor variables were found in several areas: neuroleptic treatment, onset and previous course (precipitating factors, first manifestation, hospitalization in the preceding year, suicide attempts), psychopathology (residual type, schizoaffective disorder), social adjustment (marital status, employment, intensity of life, Phillips score), previous life experiences (traumatic experiences and psychiatric or developmental disturbances in childhood), and biology (gender, age). Our investigation confirmed the generally prevalent views regarding the value of neuroleptic treatment, the multifactorial etiology, and the vulnerability stress model of schizophrenia.
在一项德国多中心治疗研究中，对354例精神分裂症和分裂情感性障碍患者进行了为期2年的随访。所收集的数据作为本预测研究的基础。首次将分类与回归树（CART）分析技术用于此目的。CART产生了有益的数据，似乎是预测研究中的一种有用工具。在“复发”和“再次住院”这两个结局变量上，在几个方面发现了显著的预测变量：抗精神病药物治疗、起病和既往病程（促发因素、首次表现、前一年住院情况、自杀未遂）、精神病理学（残留型、分裂情感性障碍）、社会适应（婚姻状况、就业、生活强度、菲利普斯评分）、既往生活经历（童年创伤经历以及精神或发育障碍）和生物学因素（性别、年龄）。我们的调查证实了关于抗精神病药物治疗的价值、多因素病因以及精神分裂症的易感性应激模型的普遍流行观点。
