Looney S W, Blondell R D, Gagel J R, Pentecost M W
University of Louisville Department of Family and Community Medicine, USA.
J Ky Med Assoc. 1998 May;96(5):189-93.
The hypotheses that data, available at the time when a medical school admission decision is made, can be used to predict generalist specialty choice and rural practice location were tested. Applicant data, available to admissions committee members at the University of Louisville in 1986 and 1987 about the classes of 1990 and 1991 respectively, were correlated with specialty choice and practice location in a retrospective cohort study. Data collected from 1994 to 1996 about the 1990 and 1991 graduates were used to develop a mathematical model to predict specialty choice and practice location using stepwise logistic regression. These models were more accurate in predicting which applicants would not select a generalist career (negative predictive value = 80.7%) than those who would (positive predictive value = 42.7%) and in predicting those who would not practice in a rural location (negative predictive value = 91.9%) than those who would (positive predictive value = 37.8%). We conclude that applicant data, available at the time admission decisions are made, are of limited value for identifying those who will eventually become generalist physicians or practice in a rural area. However, the data are useful for identifying those who will not.
关于在做出医学院录取决定时可获取的数据能否用于预测全科医学专业选择和乡村执业地点的假设进行了检验。在一项回顾性队列研究中，分别将路易斯维尔大学招生委员会成员在1986年和1987年可获取的、关于1990级和1991级申请人的数据，与专业选择和执业地点进行了关联分析。利用1994年至1996年收集的关于1990年和1991年毕业生的数据，通过逐步逻辑回归建立了一个数学模型来预测专业选择和执业地点。这些模型在预测哪些申请人不会选择全科医学职业（阴性预测值 = 80.7%）方面比预测哪些申请人会选择（阳性预测值 = 42.7%）更准确，在预测哪些人不会在乡村地区执业（阴性预测值 = 91.9%）方面比预测哪些人会在乡村地区执业（阳性预测值 = 37.8%）更准确。我们得出结论，在做出录取决定时可获取的申请人数据，对于识别最终会成为全科医生或在农村地区执业的人价值有限。然而，这些数据对于识别那些不会成为全科医生或在农村地区执业的人是有用的。
