Whyte G
ARCBS-VIC/TAS, South Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Vox Sang. 1998;74 Suppl 2:105-9. doi: 10.1111/j.1423-0410.1998.tb05405.x.
Risk is usually simplistically defined as the probability of an adverse outcome, under-recognising the importance of perception. The intuitive centre of the risk structure is 1 in a million (10(-6)), the background risk of death in developed countries. In Australia, current risks of transmission of HIV and HCV by blood transfusion are about 10(-6), the risk is higher for HBV and lower for HTLV1, but the risk of death from the infections is much less, particularly for HTLV1. When blood service professionals take risk related actions, their judgement must be tempered by contemporary political and social realities and the public's real and disproportionate horror of catastrophe.
风险通常被简单地定义为不良后果发生的概率，却未充分认识到认知的重要性。风险结构的直观核心是百万分之一（10⁻⁶），即发达国家的背景死亡风险。在澳大利亚，目前输血传播艾滋病毒和丙型肝炎病毒的风险约为10⁻⁶，乙型肝炎病毒的风险更高，人类嗜T淋巴细胞病毒1型（HTLV1）的风险更低，但感染导致死亡的风险要小得多，尤其是对于HTLV1。当血液服务专业人员采取与风险相关的行动时，他们的判断必须受到当代政治和社会现实以及公众对灾难真实且不成比例的恐惧的影响。
