Copas J B, Whiteley J S
Br J Psychiatry. 1976 Oct;129:388-92. doi: 10.1192/bjp.129.4.388.
Factors from the social history of male psychopaths were examined in relation to their success or failure as measured by re-convictions of psychiatric hospital re-admissions 2-3 years after treatment at Henderson Hospital. From these data a weighted prediction formula was calculated and was tested out on a further cohort of patients. As a prediction instrument it was found to be reliable to a degree of significance just above the 1 per cent level. Other aspects of the subsequent career of treated patients are noted, in particular a tendency to early but often short-lived relapse and then longer standing success.
我们研究了男性精神病患者社会历史中的因素,这些因素与他们在亨德森医院接受治疗两到三年后再次被定罪或再次入住精神病院的情况所衡量的成败相关。根据这些数据计算出一个加权预测公式,并在另一组患者中进行了测试。作为一种预测工具,发现它在略高于1%的显著水平上具有可靠性。文中还提到了接受治疗患者后续生涯的其他方面,特别是早期但往往短暂复发然后长期成功的倾向。