Marchetti M, Quaglini S, Barosi G
Laboratory of Medical Informatics, IRCCS Policlinico S. Matteo, University of Pavia, Italy.
J Intern Med. 1998 Sep;244(3):217-26. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2796.1998.00362.x.
Patients with mild hereditary spherocytosis (HS), i.e. with haemolysis without anaemia. have an increased risk of gallstone formation, erythroid aplasia and haemolytic crisis. Since the effect of prophylactic splenectomy on life expectancy has not been established, we conducted a decision analysis comparing prophylactic splenectomy and cholecystectomy with no surgery.
The available data on surgery and disease outcomes were modelled to estimate the effects of the different interventions on the quality-adjusted life expectancy. The early phase outcomes depicted surgery-related mortality and incorporated compliance and the adverse effects of prophylaxis against post splenectomy infections. The late phase outcomes were framed by a Markov cohort analysis.
For patients without gallstones, surgery was of no benefit. For those with gallstones the preferred strategies were found to be splenectomy and cholecystectomy before the age of 39 when asymptomatic, and before 52 when accompanied by occasional biliary colic. Cholecystectomy alone proved to be the preferred strategy in older patients with occasional biliary colic. For patients of up to 52 years of age and candidates for cholecystectomy because of recurrent biliary colic, the best strategy was to combine this procedure with splenectomy. Sensitivity analysis showed that the results were sensitive to the incidence of post cholecystectomy syndrome. Most remarkably an extreme sensitivity to compliance with post splenectomy infection prophylaxis was demonstrated.
Our model suggested that combined prophylactic splenectomy and cholecystectomy provide a substantial gain in quality-adjusted life expectancy for young patients and adults with mild HS and gallstones.
轻度遗传性球形红细胞增多症(HS)患者,即有溶血但无贫血的患者,患胆结石、红系再生障碍和溶血危象的风险增加。由于预防性脾切除术对预期寿命的影响尚未明确,我们进行了一项决策分析,比较预防性脾切除术、胆囊切除术和不进行手术的情况。
对手术和疾病结局的现有数据进行建模,以估计不同干预措施对质量调整预期寿命的影响。早期结局描述了手术相关死亡率,并纳入了依从性以及脾切除术后感染预防的不良反应。后期结局通过马尔可夫队列分析构建。
对于无胆结石的患者,手术并无益处。对于有胆结石的患者,发现首选策略是在无症状时39岁之前、伴有偶尔胆绞痛时52岁之前进行脾切除术和胆囊切除术。对于偶尔有胆绞痛的老年患者,单独胆囊切除术被证明是首选策略。对于因复发性胆绞痛而适合胆囊切除术且年龄在52岁以下的患者,最佳策略是将该手术与脾切除术相结合。敏感性分析表明,结果对胆囊切除术后综合征的发生率敏感。最显著的是,对脾切除术后感染预防的依从性表现出极高的敏感性。
我们的模型表明,对于患有轻度HS和胆结石的年轻患者及成年人,预防性脾切除术和胆囊切除术相结合可显著提高质量调整预期寿命。