Disease progression and cost of insulin dependent diabetes mellitus: development and application of a simulation model.

This paper presents the development and application of a Markov model that simulates the onset and progression of insulin dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) and its sequelae. The model estimates direct medical costs resulting from different patterns of health states during the course of the disease. The model is user-friendly and allows for changes in the input variables to be specified, thereby providing a frame-work for sensitivity analysis. The Markov process moves a cohort of individuals through six different health states: Healthy, IDDM without chronic microvascular complications, IDDM with retinopathy alone, IDDM with neuropathy alone or with retinopathy, IDDM with nephropathy, and death. Epidemiologic data were obtained from governmental sources as well as the medical literature. Transition probabilities were estimated using data from the Wisconsin Epidemiologic Study of Diabetic Retinopathy (WESDR). Direct medical costs were estimated from actual charges from a local health maintenance organization in Wisconsin. The validity of the model was tested in several ways including a comparison with an independent cost estimate made by the Wisconsin Department of Health and Family Services. The model appears to be useful in estimating the progression and associated costs of IDDM for any large population over any period of time and in allowing changes in the inputs to evaluate their impact thus providing pertinent information to healthcare decision-makers and health planners.