Mitchell M P
Robert C. Byrd Health Sciences Center of West Virginia University, School of Nursing, Charleston Division, 25304-1299, USA.
J Nurs Educ. 1998 Oct;37(7):305-7. doi: 10.3928/0148-4834-19981001-07.
The purpose of this study was to assess the Delphi technique as a viable method for forecasting future events in nursing education by determining the degree of accuracy of previously predicted events and identifying the circumstances that delayed or accelerated occurrence of the predicted events. Data were collected by three rounds of questionnaires distributed to 33 administrative heads of all nursing education programs in a southeastern state. The use of simple statistics concluded the Delphi technique was a valid instrument in nursing education planning: 22 of 26 events occurred as predicted, resulting in an 84.6% accuracy rate; 24 of 25 events which had not occurred remained viable, resulting in a 96% accuracy rate; 98.1% of the original events had either occurred or were still viable to occur.
本研究的目的是评估德尔菲技术作为预测护理教育未来事件的一种可行方法，通过确定先前预测事件的准确程度，并识别延迟或加速预测事件发生的情况。通过向东南部一个州所有护理教育项目的33名行政负责人发放三轮问卷来收集数据。运用简单统计得出，德尔菲技术在护理教育规划中是一种有效的工具：26个事件中有22个如预测的那样发生了，准确率达84.6%；25个未发生的事件中有24个仍然可行，准确率达96%；98.1%的原始事件已经发生或仍然有可能发生。
