Nordlund L A
Department of Health and Society, Tema Research, Linköping University, Sweden.
Eur J Cancer Prev. 1998 Apr;7(2):109-16.
Tobacco smoking is the most important cause of lung cancer and accounts for about 80-90% of all cases of lung cancer among men and about 50-80% among women. Data from three smoking habit surveys were used to construct age-specific smoking prevalence for nine 5-year birth cohorts, born between 1904 and 1948. The trend of smoking prevalence and the trend of lung cancer mortality for these cohorts are described. Among men, both smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality were relatively similar in all cohorts, although those 15-19 years old showed a successive increase in smoking prevalence with successive birth cohorts, resulting in a shift in peak lung cancer mortality from earlier- to later-born male cohorts. Among women, it was apparent that smoking prevalence increased with successive birth cohorts and peaked in the late 1940s or early 1950s. Increases in cohort-specific lung cancer mortality were also seen, and the later-born cohorts with the highest smoking prevalence displayed the highest rates of lung cancer mortality. As lung cancer is commonest at older ages, an increase in overall lung cancer mortality among women over the next couple of decades is expected.
吸烟是肺癌最重要的病因，在男性肺癌病例中约占80%-90%，在女性中约占50%-80%。利用三项吸烟习惯调查的数据，为1904年至1948年出生的9个5年出生队列构建了特定年龄的吸烟率。描述了这些队列的吸烟率趋势和肺癌死亡率趋势。在男性中，所有队列的吸烟率和肺癌死亡率相对相似，尽管15-19岁的人群中，随着出生队列的相继推移，吸烟率持续上升，导致男性肺癌死亡率的峰值从较早出生的队列向较晚出生的队列转移。在女性中，显然吸烟率随着出生队列的相继推移而增加，并在20世纪40年代末或50年代初达到峰值。特定队列的肺癌死亡率也有所增加，吸烟率最高的较晚出生队列显示出最高的肺癌死亡率。由于肺癌在老年人中最为常见，预计在未来几十年中女性总体肺癌死亡率将会上升。
