Burton R M, Damon W W, Dellinger D C
Behav Sci. 1976 Nov;21(6):478-89. doi: 10.1002/bs.3830210603.
The advantages of clinical and mechanical combination of observations for prediction are mutually reinforced by an application of Bayesian statistics. The technique is shown to be particularly advantageous in a situation which is characterized by a paucity of observations available to suppliment a prior expert judgment. The approach also presents a basis for evaluating relative expertise and tracing the learning experience of experts. Taking the community as the organizational level of analysis, data on the classification of aged persons in Durham County, North Carolina, and data on the changes in classification of these individuals within the population over time are gathered and studied. These data are combined with clinical judgments of changes as a demonstration of the merits of the technique developed in this paper.
贝叶斯统计的应用使临床观察与机械观察相结合进行预测的优势得到了相互强化。该技术在缺乏可补充先前专家判断的观察数据的情况下显示出特别的优势。该方法还为评估相对专业知识和追踪专家的学习经验提供了基础。以社区作为分析的组织层面，收集并研究了北卡罗来纳州达勒姆县老年人分类的数据，以及这些个体在人群中随时间的分类变化数据。这些数据与关于变化的临床判断相结合，以证明本文所开发技术的优点。
