Current estimates of and future projections for adult deaths attributed to HIV infection in Zimbabwe.

OBJECTIVE

Estimates of HIV prevalence in 1995 among all adults in Zimbabwe range between about 18% and 24%. The objective of this study was to estimate, for Zimbabwe, the impact of HIV infection on adult mortality, by age and gender, between 1995 and the year 2000.

METHODS

For this analysis, we used 1992 census data to estimate the number of non-HIV-related deaths, and a short-term projection model to estimate the number of deaths attributed to HIV infection in 1995 and the year 2000.

RESULTS

It was estimated that between 52% and 60% of all adult deaths in 1995 were attributed to HIV infection, and between 69% and 76% in both males and females in the group between 20 and 39 years of age. The estimated adult mortality rate per 1000 increased from 9.8 in 1987 (based on census data) to between 20.6 and 24.3 in 1995. For the year 2000, it was projected that between 66% and 73% of all adult deaths would be attributed to HIV infection, and between 81% and 86% in those aged 20 to 39 years. The estimated adult mortality rate in the year 2000 increased to between 29.1/1000 and 36.6/1000. Even if all transmission was assumed to cease after 1995, it was projected that >60% of adult deaths would be attributed to HIV in the year 2000. Adult population growth is projected to decrease to between 0.3% and 1.0% in the year 2000.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest that the impact of HIV infection on mortality in Zimbabwe is already severe and will continue to increase. Efforts to reduce numbers of new HIV infections today will serve to reduce the future burden of mortality, particularly in the longer term.