Iserson K V, Adams J, Cordell W H, Graff L, Halamka J, Ling L, Peacock W F, Sklar D, Stair T
Section of Emergency Medicine, University of Arizona, College of Medicine, Tucson 85724, USA.
Acad Emerg Med. 1999 Feb;6(2):137-44.
Emergency medicine (EM) will change over the next 20 years more than any other specialty. Its proximity to and interrelationships with the community, nearly all other clinicians (physicians and nonphysicians), and scientific/technologic developments guarantee this. While emergency physicians (EPs) will continue to treat both emergent and nonemergent patients, over the next decades our interventions, methods, and place in the medical care system will probably become unrecognizable from the EM we now practice and deliver. This paper, developed by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine (SAEM) Task Force on Academic Emergency Medicine's Future, was designed to promote discussions about and actions to optimize our specialty's future. After briefly discussing the importance of futures planning, it suggests "best-case," "worst-case," and most probable future courses for academic EM over the next decades. The authors predict that EPs will practice a much more technologic and accurate form of medicine, with diagnostic, patient, reference, and consultant information rapidly available to them. They will be at the center of an extensive consultation network stemming from major medical centers and the purveyors of a sophisticated home health system, very similar to or even more advanced than what is now delivered on hospital wards. The key to planning for our specialty is for EM organizations, academic centers, and individuals to act now to optimize our possible future.
在未来20年里，急诊医学（EM）的变化将超过其他任何专科。其与社区、几乎所有其他临床医生（医师和非医师）的紧密联系以及相互关系，还有科学技术的发展，都保证了这一点。虽然急诊医生（EPs）将继续治疗急症和非急症患者，但在未来几十年里，我们在医疗系统中的干预措施、方法和地位可能会与我们现在所从事和提供的急诊医学大不相同。本文由学术急诊医学协会（SAEM）学术急诊医学未来特别工作组撰写，旨在促进关于优化我们专科未来的讨论并推动相关行动。在简要讨论了未来规划的重要性之后，它提出了未来几十年学术急诊医学“最佳情况”“最差情况”以及最可能出现的发展方向。作者预测，急诊医生将采用技术含量更高、准确性更强的医疗方式，诊断、患者、参考资料以及咨询信息都能迅速获取。他们将处于一个广泛咨询网络的中心，这个网络源自大型医疗中心以及复杂家庭健康系统的供应商，与现在医院病房所提供的服务非常相似甚至更为先进。为我们这个专科进行规划的关键在于，急诊医学组织、学术中心和个人现在就要采取行动，以优化我们可能的未来。
