Banta H D
TNO-WHO Program on Health Technology Assessment, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Health Policy. 1990 Jan-Feb;14(1):61-73. doi: 10.1016/0168-8510(90)90364-j.
The past decades have been a time of rapid technological change in health care, but technological change will probably accelerate during the next decade or so. This will bring problems, but it will also present certain opportunities. In particular, the health care system is faced with the need to spend its limited resources more effectively. The number of hospital beds is being reduced, and lengths of stay are falling. In the future, the health care system will have to care for an increasing number of elderly people, both with chronic disease and also with dependency because of frailty and functional problems. The hospital of the future will probably be smaller and more intensive in the nature of its care. In part, this is because many present and future clinical technologies can be delivered outside of the hospital setting. And communication technologies offer the possibility of tying the various parts of the health care system into one true system. This would mean that the future hospital would have a more active role in supervising technical care outside of the hospital, and in making specialized knowledge accessible in all parts of the health system.
过去几十年是医疗保健领域技术快速变革的时期，但在未来十年左右，技术变革可能会加速。这将带来问题，但也会带来一定的机遇。特别是，医疗保健系统面临着更有效地利用其有限资源的需求。医院病床数量在减少，住院时间也在缩短。未来，医疗保健系统将不得不照顾越来越多的老年人，他们既有慢性病，又因身体虚弱和功能问题而需要依赖他人。未来的医院可能会规模更小，护理性质更集中。部分原因是，许多当前和未来的临床技术可以在医院环境之外提供。而且通信技术使将医疗保健系统的各个部分连接成一个真正的系统成为可能。这意味着未来的医院将在监督医院外的技术护理以及使专业知识在卫生系统的各个部分都能获取方面发挥更积极的作用。
