Evans W N, Graham J D
University of Maryland, College Park 20742.
J Health Econ. 1990 Sep;9(2):121-42. doi: 10.1016/0167-6296(90)90014-t.
This paper presents the first econometric estimate of the lifesaving benefit of automobile child restraint use legislation. In contrast to previous econometric analyses of traffic safety regulations, modified count data models are employed to account for the rarity of childhood fatalities. Results of the modeling suggest that legislation reduces childhood car-occupant fatalities by 39% for infants, and 30% among toddlers. A simple simulation indicates that such legislation is currently saving the lives of about 160 children per year in the United States.
本文首次对汽车儿童安全约束装置使用立法的救生效益进行了计量经济学估计。与以往对交通安全法规的计量经济学分析不同，本文采用了修正计数数据模型来考虑儿童死亡的罕见性。建模结果表明，该立法使婴儿乘车死亡人数减少了39%，幼儿乘车死亡人数减少了30%。一项简单的模拟表明，目前这项立法每年在美国挽救了约160名儿童的生命。
