Manton K G, Newcomer R, Lowrimore G R, Vertrees J C, Harrington C
Duke University, Center for Demographic Studies, Durham, NC 27708.
Health Care Financ Rev. 1993 Winter;15(2):173-202.
Evaluating the performance of long-term care (LTC) demonstrations requires longitudinal assessment of multiple outcomes where selective mortality and disenrollment, if not accounted for, can give the appearance of reduced (or enhanced) efficacy. We assessed outcomes in social/health maintenance organizations (S/HMOs) and Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) care using a multivariate model to estimate active life expectancy (ALE). S/HMO enrollees and samples of FFS clients in four sites were analyzed and outcome differences assessed for a 3-year period. Results provide insights into S/HMO performance under different conditions and, more generally, into evaluating LTC demonstrations without randomized client and control groups.
评估长期护理(LTC)示范项目的成效需要对多个结果进行纵向评估,如果不考虑选择性死亡率和退出率,可能会出现疗效降低(或增强)的假象。我们使用多变量模型评估社会/健康维护组织(S/HMOs)和医疗保险按服务收费(FFS)护理中的结果,以估计积极预期寿命(ALE)。分析了四个地点的S/HMO参保者和FFS客户样本,并评估了三年期间的结果差异。结果为不同条件下S/HMO的表现提供了见解,更广泛地说,为在没有随机分组的客户和对照组的情况下评估LTC示范项目提供了见解。