Manton K G, Corder L S, Stallard E
Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University.
J Gerontol. 1993 Jul;48(4):S153-66. doi: 10.1093/geronj/48.4.s153.
The U.S. elderly (65+) and oldest-old (85+) populations are growing rapidly which, combined with their high per capita acute and long-term care needs, will increase total U.S. health care needs. Also important in determining needs is how health and function change as mortality declines in the elderly population. Recent increases in adult life expectancy have been due to declines in stroke and heart disease mortality. There is controversy, however, about how those declines relate to the health and function of survivors. We examined changes in the prevalence and incidence of chronic disability using the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys. The total prevalence of U.S. chronically disabled community-dwelling and institutionalized elderly populations declined from 1984 to 1989, overall, for each of three age strata and after mortality adjustment. These changes varied over level of disability. Factors contributing to these changes, including measurement, are reviewed.
美国老年人口（65岁及以上）和高龄老人（85岁及以上）数量正在迅速增长，再加上他们人均较高的急性和长期护理需求，将增加美国医疗保健的总体需求。在确定需求方面同样重要的是，随着老年人口死亡率下降，健康和功能如何变化。近期成年人预期寿命的增加归因于中风和心脏病死亡率的下降。然而，这些下降与幸存者的健康和功能之间的关系存在争议。我们利用1982年、1984年和1989年的全国长期护理调查，研究了慢性残疾患病率和发病率的变化。总体而言，在经过死亡率调整后，1984年至1989年期间，美国社区居住和机构养老的慢性残疾老年人口在三个年龄层中的总患病率均有所下降。这些变化因残疾程度而异。本文对导致这些变化的因素（包括测量因素）进行了综述。
