Trends in reported disability in the Australian aged population: interpretation of preliminary ABS survey findings.

The 1981 and 1988 Australian Bureau of Statistics Disability Surveys provide the basis for gaining insight into changes in disability prevalence in the older Australian population. Between 1981 and 1988, self-reported disability rates increased 52% and 78% for the 65-84 and 85+ cohorts, respectively. Through cross referencing with other data bases, it is possible to attribute between one-third and one-half of this increase to population growth, much of which can be ascribed to disproportionate growth in the 65-84 and 85+ cohorts. Much of the remainder appears to be related to an increase in self-reported prevalence of chronic diseases at older ages, with a concomitant rise in disability, and a residual reporting effect. In conclusion, some issues of data collection and analysis for planning both long term care and health promotion interventions are raised.