Woodward R S, Amir L, Schnitzler M A, Brennan D C
Pharmacoeconomic Transplant Research Group, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri, USA.
Pharmacoeconomics. 1998 Jul;14(1):71-7. doi: 10.2165/00019053-199814010-00007.
This model introduces a unique and inexpensive technique to estimate profit increases that might be expected from: (i) an additional clinical trial to establish a drug's second clinical indication; and (ii) a survey of market demand.
Microsoft Excel spreadsheets are used to solicit selected expert opinions about the new product's annual market share under scenarios reflecting different pricing points, promotional expenditures and clinical advantage.
The preprogrammed model returns profit-maximising price, promotional expenditure and market differentiation for each expert and the group as a whole. The extent of disagreement among the experts is used to estimate the additional profits which might be expected from a clinical trial and a market survey. Results from an illustrative application indicated greater incremental profits could be expected from the survey of market demand. The clinical trial generated smaller expected incremental profits because several experts felt that the trial's potential results would not affect the drug's profit-maximising price.
With a 1-day meeting between 6 experts, the model provided a recommendation about the new product's profit-maximising market price and promotional expenditure. Furthermore, it estimated profit increases that might be expected from additional clinical trials and a survey of market demand.
该模型引入了一种独特且成本低廉的技术，用于估计可能从以下方面预期的利润增长：（i）开展一项额外的临床试验以确立药物的第二个临床适应症；以及（ii）进行一次市场需求调查。
使用Microsoft Excel电子表格，在反映不同定价点、促销支出和临床优势的情景下，征求选定专家对新产品年市场份额的意见。
预编程模型为每位专家及整个专家小组返回利润最大化的价格、促销支出和市场差异化。专家之间的分歧程度用于估计临床试验和市场调查可能带来的额外利润。一个示例应用的结果表明，市场需求调查有望带来更大的增量利润。临床试验产生的预期增量利润较小，因为几位专家认为试验的潜在结果不会影响药物的利润最大化价格。
通过6位专家之间为期1天的会议，该模型提供了关于新产品利润最大化市场价格和促销支出的建议。此外，它还估计了额外临床试验和市场需求调查可能带来的利润增长。
