Woodward R S, Boxerman S B, Schnitzler M A, Dunagan W C
Health Administration Program, School of Medicine, Washington University, St. Louis, MO, USA.
J Med Syst. 1996 Dec;20(6):385-93. doi: 10.1007/BF02257282.
This manuscript extends the classical models of the value of information to ask whether a hospital's net financial return is ever maximized by a cost-effectiveness analysis of retrospective data when watchful waiting and a full randomized clinical trial are alternative methodologies. The manuscript demonstrates that (1) some small-scale retrospective analyses may negatively affect net income and (2) under some conditions, larger-scale retrospective analyses may maximize net income. The manuscript also suggests that risk aversion increases the value of information and therefore the optimum expenditure on a project evaluation.
本文扩展了信息价值的经典模型，以探讨在观察等待和完全随机临床试验为替代方法时，对回顾性数据进行成本效益分析是否能使医院的净财务回报最大化。本文证明：（1）一些小规模回顾性分析可能对净收入产生负面影响；（2）在某些条件下，大规模回顾性分析可能使净收入最大化。本文还表明，风险规避会增加信息价值，从而增加项目评估的最优支出。
