Van Tielen R, Peys F, Genaert J
Belgian Institute of Health Economics, Brussels, Belgium.
Health Policy. 1998 Jul;45(1):1-14. doi: 10.1016/s0168-8510(98)00026-8.
It has become customary in our society to attribute the rise in health care expenditure to a large extent to the aging of the population. The Belgian Institute of Health Economics (BIGE-IBES) finalised a study to measure the impact of the demographic trend on public spending for ambulatory pharmaceuticals. The results show that the changes in age structure as such have a relatively small impact on health care expenditure. Over the period 1986-1996 an annual growth of +0.73% was observed, while total public spending showed an annual average increase of +6.2% (in constant francs 1996). This first static demographic impact will become +0.75% per year for the next decade 1996-2006. It is, however, possible to calculate the extent to which per capita expenditure envolved differently according to age group: over 1986-1996 expenditure for the elderly was rising more sharply than for the younger age groups. This leads to a second dynamic demographic impact which will cause an annual growth rate of +1.91% for the next decade, according to the working hypothesis put forward. This growth rate is to be compared with the authorized budgetary increase of +1.5% per year (inflation excluded), according to the EU-Maastricht quotes..., and it does even not take into account the other increasing factors as technological innovation and epidemiological needs.
在我们的社会中，习惯上将医疗保健支出的增长在很大程度上归因于人口老龄化。比利时卫生经济研究所（BIGE - IBES）完成了一项研究，以衡量人口趋势对门诊药品公共支出的影响。结果表明，年龄结构的变化本身对医疗保健支出的影响相对较小。在1986 - 1996年期间，观察到年增长率为+0.73%，而公共支出总额显示年平均增长率为+6.2%（以1996年不变法郎计算）。在接下来的1996 - 2006年十年中，这种最初的静态人口影响将变为每年+0.75%。然而，可以计算出人均支出根据年龄组的不同变化程度：在1986 - 1996年期间，老年人的支出增长比年轻年龄组更为显著。这导致了第二种动态人口影响，根据所提出的工作假设，在接下来的十年中，这将导致年增长率为+1.91%。根据欧盟马斯特里赫特标准……，该增长率应与每年+1.5%的授权预算增长（不包括通货膨胀）进行比较，而且它甚至没有考虑到技术创新和流行病学需求等其他增长因素。
