Kaiser L R
Am J Health Plann. 1978 Oct;3(4):1-9.
What is the future of health planning? Will the profession survive? What will health planners be doing thirty years from now? The answers to these questions depend in part on prognostication and in part on the collective will of the profession to shape its own destiny. You ought to be doing something about the future in addition to waiting around for it. If by nature you are impatient for the good life, don't wait for it--invent it. The science of design is the sovereign science of the 21st century. A design for health requires us to answer three questions: (1) What should be done? (values) (2) How can it be done? (knowledge) (3) Who can do it? (power) To the degree health planners help society in its search for answers to these three questions, it will secure its own future as a profession. To the degree it fails in this quest, it will continue in its current mechanistic preoccupations and will eventually pass into irrevelance and obscurity. The impact of twenty-four societal trends are projected, as are the effects of the trends on the health planning profession and the images of its practitioners.
健康规划的未来是什么?这个职业会存续下去吗?从现在起三十年后健康规划者会做些什么?这些问题的答案部分取决于预测,部分取决于该职业塑造自身命运的集体意愿。除了坐等未来降临,你们应该为未来做点什么。如果你生性渴望美好生活,那就别坐等——去创造它。设计科学是21世纪的首要科学。健康设计要求我们回答三个问题:(1)应该做什么?(价值观)(2)如何去做?(知识)(3)谁能去做?(权力)健康规划者在多大程度上帮助社会寻找这三个问题的答案,该职业就能在多大程度上确保自身的未来。如果在这一探索中失败,它将继续当前机械的关注点,最终变得无关紧要并被人遗忘。文中预测了24种社会趋势的影响,以及这些趋势对健康规划职业及其从业者形象的影响。