D'Agostino R B, Sytkowski P A, Pozen M W, Selker H
Emerg Health Serv Rev. 1983;2(2-3):33-47. doi: 10.1300/j261v02n02_03.
A five-year study was undertaken to develop a valid mathematical model that could aid in diagnosing acute ischemic heart disease in the emergency room, thus reducing inappropriate admissions to the coronary care unit. The study was divided into two substudies. In the first, variables significantly predictive of ischemic heart disease were identified and a logistic function was developed and tested. In the second, a six-hospital study, the variables of the first substudy were validated and a final logistic regression was developed and tested prospectively. This model's availability proved to be successful in improving diagnostic accuracy and specificity and in reducing false positive predictive rates and admissions to coronary care units.
一项为期五年的研究旨在开发一个有效的数学模型，以帮助在急诊室诊断急性缺血性心脏病，从而减少不适当的冠心病监护病房收治情况。该研究分为两个子研究。在第一个子研究中，确定了对缺血性心脏病有显著预测作用的变量，并开发和测试了一个逻辑函数。在第二个六家医院参与的子研究中，对第一个子研究中的变量进行了验证，并前瞻性地开发和测试了最终的逻辑回归模型。事实证明，该模型的应用成功提高了诊断准确性和特异性，降低了假阳性预测率以及冠心病监护病房的收治率。
