D'Agostino R B, Pozen M W
Stat Med. 1982 Jan-Mar;1(1):41-8. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780010107.
We empirically developed a logistic function to predict acute coronary heart disease (ACHD) and then tested it to determine its usefulness to emergency room physicians in diagnosis and admission of patients with suspected ACHD to the coronary care unit. The function was based on nine clinical, historical and electrocardiographic variables from a set of 105 variables collected on 643 patients with suspected ACHD. In the second phase of the study, we provide the probabilities generated by the function to emergency room physicians during alternate months as a supplement to existing diagnostic modalities. Use of the probability of ACHD (401 patients with probabilities versus 455 patients without probabilities) resulted in statistically significant improvement in diagnostic rates and reduction in the number of inappropriate admissions to the coronary care unit.
我们通过实证研究开发了一个逻辑函数来预测急性冠状动脉心脏病（ACHD），然后对其进行测试，以确定其对急诊医生诊断疑似ACHD患者并将其收入冠心病监护病房的有用性。该函数基于从643例疑似ACHD患者收集的105个变量中的9个临床、病史和心电图变量。在研究的第二阶段，我们在交替的月份向急诊医生提供该函数生成的概率，作为现有诊断方法的补充。使用ACHD概率（401例有概率患者与455例无概率患者）在诊断率方面有统计学意义的提高，并减少了冠心病监护病房不适当入院的人数。
