Health care 2000.

During the past two decades, the health care industry has become an economic giant growing from 6.1% ($42.0 billion) of the gross national product in 1965 to an estimated 10.7% ($354.6 billion) in 1983. The industry is now the nation's third largest. The underlying causes of this remarkable growth include an open-ended reimbursement system, insatiable demand, and the lack of traditional market forces that encourage efficiency. Unfortunately, the nation cannot continue to allocate an increasing share of its gross national product to health care, for to do so would mean that other important sectors of the economy would experience either retarded growth or a decline in real terms. By the 2000, fundamental elements of the health care system will have undergone a major metamorphosis which hopefully will result in a more efficient and effective allocation of the health care dollar. This article will offer an overview of the changes likely to occur in sections of the health care environment of major concern to the health care planner.