A vision of long-term care. To care for tomorrow's elderly, hospitals must plan now, not react later.

In the next two decades, rapid, fundamental changes will take place in the way we finance, organize, and provide long-term care services. Because the elderly make up such a large portion of the patient population, America's hospitals should be concerned--and involved. There are six keys to the future of long-term care: a sharp increase in elderly population, a new generation of elderly, restrained government role, intergenerational strains, growing corporate concern, and the rise of "gerotechnology." These trends and countertrends will result in a new look in the long-term care landscape. By the year 2010, changes will include a true public-private financing system, provider reimbursement on the basis of capitation and prospective payment, coordinated access to services, dominant alternative delivery systems, a different breed of nursing homes, fewer staffing problems, patient-centered care, a new importance in housing, and an emphasis on prevention. For hospitals, this future vision of long-term care means that significant opportunities will open up to meet the needs of the elderly-at-risk and to achieve a competitive position in the burgeoning elderly care industry.