[Trends in nursing care requirements in German 1990-2050--results of demographic projections].

Since the political agreement on the financing of elderly primary care, the question of the determinants for both the absolute number of elderly persons requiring care and the care burden is of particular importance. The probable demographic effects of a change in immigration and mortality rates in Germany are shown with the aid of various models. A higher life expectancy under the condition of a stable age-specific care quota leads to a substantial increase in the need for elderly care. Similarly, the future care burden will not remain stable with an increased immigration of young people; rather it will increase as well. It can thus be predicted that the problem of the care burden as well as its financing will remain an important topic in the future for demographic reasons alone.