Pace K T, Provan J L, Jewett M A
Division of Urology, University of Toronto, Ont.
Can J Surg. 1999 Jun;42(3):181-9.
To address the issues of work-force planning and modelling in the 21st century for the specialty of urology in the Province of Ontario.
Data (from 1991 to 1995) regarding urology physician resources were gathered from Health Canada, the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada, the Ontario Physician Human Resources Data Centre, the Canadian Post-M.D. Education Registry, the System for Health Area Resource Planning (SHARP) database, the Canadian Institute for Health Information and the National Physician Database. Specifically, the age and gender breakdown of currently active Ontario urologists, measures of urologist clinical activity (from Ontario Hospital Insurance Plan billings and questionnaires), inputs into and exits from the active urologist population were gathered, and estimates of future needs for urologist services, based on current population and demographic models, were made. A model to predict the balance between future needs for urology services and future supply of urologists was then created and validated against data drawn from the SHARP database.
The model revealed that there will be a significant shortage of urologists in Ontario in the immediate and long-term future; by the year 2010 there will be a shortfall of 101 urologists in Ontario, or 51% of the total needed.
Enlarging the urology training programs in Ontario would help to minimize the estimated shortfall. Systematic modelling of physician work-force needs for the future is necessary for the optimal allocation of health care resources. The methodology of the urology work-force model is generalizable to physician work-force planning for other specialty groups on a provincial or national basis.
解决21世纪安大略省泌尿外科专业的劳动力规划和建模问题。
收集了（1991年至1995年）来自加拿大卫生部、加拿大皇家内科医师和外科医师学院、安大略省医师人力资源数据中心、加拿大医学博士后教育注册处、健康区域资源规划系统（SHARP）数据库、加拿大卫生信息研究所和国家医师数据库的泌尿外科医生资源数据。具体而言，收集了安大略省目前在职泌尿外科医生的年龄和性别分布、泌尿外科医生临床活动的指标（来自安大略省医院保险计划账单和调查问卷）、在职泌尿外科医生群体的流入和流出情况，并根据当前人口和人口模型对泌尿外科服务的未来需求进行了估计。然后创建了一个模型来预测泌尿外科服务未来需求与泌尿外科医生未来供应之间的平衡，并根据从SHARP数据库提取的数据进行了验证。
该模型显示，在近期和长期内，安大略省泌尿外科医生将严重短缺；到2010年，安大略省将短缺101名泌尿外科医生，占所需总数的51%。
扩大安大略省的泌尿外科培训项目将有助于尽量减少预计的短缺。对未来医生劳动力需求进行系统建模对于优化医疗资源分配是必要的。泌尿外科劳动力模型的方法可推广到省级或国家级其他专业群体的医生劳动力规划。
