Data and simulation modeling to determine the estimated number of primary care beds in Oklahoma.

Growth in managed care has resulted in an increased need for studies in health care planning. The article focuses on the estimated number of primary care beds needed in the state to provide quality services to all Oklahoma residents. Based on the 1996 population estimations for Oklahoma and its distribution to the 77 counties, a space-filling approach is used to determine 46 service areas, each of which will provide primary care service to its area population. Service areas are constructed such that residents of an area are within an acceptable distance to a primary care provider in the area. A simulation model is developed to determine the number of primary care beds needed in each service area. Statistical analysis on actual hospital data is used to determine the distributions of inpatient flow and length of stay. The simulation model is validated for acute care hospitals before application to the service areas. Sensitivity analysis on model input parameter values is performed to determine their effect on primary care bed calculations. The effect of age distribution on the bed requirement is also studied. The results of this study will assist the Oklahoma Health Care Authority in the development of sound health care policy decisions.