Touran A, Brackstone M A, McDonald M
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 1999 Sep;31(5):567-78. doi: 10.1016/s0001-4575(99)00013-5.
This paper describes a general framework for safety evaluation of autonomous intelligent cruise control in rear-end collisions. Using data and specifications from prototype devices, two collision models are developed. One model considers a train of four cars, one of which is equipped with autonomous intelligent cruise control. This model considers the car in front and two cars following the equipped car. In the second model, none of the cars is equipped with the device. Each model can predict the possibility of rear-end collision between cars under various conditions by calculating the remaining distance between cars after the front car brakes. Comparing the two collision models allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of autonomous intelligent cruise control in preventing collisions. The models are then subjected to Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the probability of collision. Based on crash probabilities, an expected value is calculated for the number of cars involved in any collision. It is found that given the model assumptions, while equipping a car with autonomous intelligent cruise control can significantly reduce the probability of the collision with the car ahead, it may adversely affect the situation for the following cars.
本文描述了一种用于评估自动智能巡航控制系统在追尾碰撞中安全性的通用框架。利用原型设备的数据和规格，开发了两种碰撞模型。一种模型考虑一列四辆车，其中一辆配备自动智能巡航控制系统。该模型考虑了前车以及配备该系统车辆后面的两辆车。在第二种模型中，没有车辆配备该设备。每个模型都可以通过计算前车刹车后车辆之间的剩余距离，预测在各种条件下车辆之间发生追尾碰撞的可能性。比较这两种碰撞模型可以评估自动智能巡航控制系统在预防碰撞方面的有效性。然后对模型进行蒙特卡洛模拟以计算碰撞概率。基于碰撞概率，计算出任何碰撞中涉及车辆数量的期望值。结果发现，在给定模型假设的情况下，虽然给一辆车配备自动智能巡航控制系统可以显著降低与前车碰撞的概率，但这可能会对后面的车辆产生不利影响。
