Hall W D, Degenhardt L J, Lynskey M T
National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney. w.hall@unsw,edu.com.au
Med J Aust. 1999 Jul 5;171(1):34-7. doi: 10.5694/j.1326-5377.1999.tb123495.x.
To examine trends in rates of opioid overdose deaths from 1964 to 1997 in different birth cohorts.
Age-period-cohort analysis of national data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Annual population rates of death attributed to opioid dependence or accidental opioid poisoning in people aged 15-44 years, by sex and birth cohort (in five-year intervals, 1940-1944 to 1975-1979).
The rate of opioid overdose deaths increased 55-fold between 1964 and 1997, from 1.3 to 71.5 per million population aged 15-44 years. The rate of opioid overdose deaths also increased substantially over the eight birth cohorts, with an incidence rate ratio of 20.70 (95% confidence interval, 13.60-31.46) in the 1975-1979 cohort compared with the 1940-1944 cohort. The age at which the cumulative rate of opioid overdose deaths reached 300 per million fell in successive cohorts (for men, from 28 years among those born 1955-1959 to 22 years among those born 1965-1974; for women, from 33 years among those born 1955-1959 to 27 years among those born 1965-1969).
Heroin use in Australia largely began in the early 1970s and rates of heroin use have markedly increased in birth cohorts born since 1950.
研究1964年至1997年不同出生队列中阿片类药物过量致死率的变化趋势。
对澳大利亚统计局的全国数据进行年龄-时期-队列分析。
按性别和出生队列（1940 - 1944年至1975 - 1979年，以五年为间隔）统计15 - 44岁人群中因阿片类药物依赖或意外阿片类药物中毒导致的年度人口死亡率。
1964年至1997年间，阿片类药物过量致死率增长了55倍，从每百万15 - 44岁人群中的1.3例增至71.5例。在八个出生队列中，阿片类药物过量致死率也大幅上升，1975 - 1979年队列与1940 - 1944年队列相比，发病率比为20.70（95%置信区间为13.60 - 31.46）。阿片类药物过量致死累计率达到每百万300例的年龄在连续队列中呈下降趋势（男性从1955 - 1959年出生人群中的28岁降至1965 - 1974年出生人群中的22岁；女性从1955 - 1959年出生人群中的33岁降至1965 - 1969年出生人群中的27岁）。
澳大利亚的海洛因使用主要始于20世纪70年代初，自1950年以来出生的队列中，海洛因使用率显著上升。
