Kleinmuntz D N, Kleinmuntz C E, Stephen R G, Nordlund D S
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA.
Healthc Financ Manage. 1999 Jun;53(6):50-8.
Strategic financial risk assessment is a practical technique that can enable healthcare strategic decision makers to perform quantitative analyses of the financial risks associated with a given strategic initiative. The technique comprises six steps: (1) list risk factors that might significantly influence the outcomes, (2) establish best-guess estimates for assumptions regarding how each risk factor will affect its financial outcomes, (3) identify risk factors that are likely to have the greatest impact, (4) assign probabilities to assumptions, (5) determine potential scenarios associated with combined assumptions, and (6) determine the probability-weighted average of the potential scenarios.
战略财务风险评估是一种实用技术，可使医疗保健战略决策者对与特定战略举措相关的财务风险进行定量分析。该技术包括六个步骤：（1）列出可能对结果产生重大影响的风险因素；（2）对每个风险因素如何影响其财务结果的假设进行最佳猜测估计；（3）识别可能产生最大影响的风险因素；（4）为假设分配概率；（5）确定与综合假设相关的潜在情景；（6）确定潜在情景的概率加权平均值。
