Beaumont M A
Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom.
Genetics. 1999 Dec;153(4):2013-29. doi: 10.1093/genetics/153.4.2013.
This article considers a demographic model where a population varies in size either linearly or exponentially. The genealogical history of microsatellite data sampled from this population can be described using coalescent theory. A method is presented whereby the posterior probability distribution of the genealogical and demographic parameters can be estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The likelihood surface for the demographic parameters is complicated and its general features are described. The method is then applied to published microsatellite data from two populations. Data from the northern hairy-nosed wombat show strong evidence of decline. Data from European humans show weak evidence of expansion.
本文考虑了一个人口数量呈线性或指数变化的人口统计学模型。从该种群中采样的微卫星数据的谱系历史可以用合并理论来描述。提出了一种方法，通过马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟来估计谱系和人口统计学参数的后验概率分布。描述了人口统计学参数的似然表面，其具有复杂的特征。然后将该方法应用于已发表的来自两个种群的微卫星数据。来自北方毛鼻袋熊的数据显示出种群数量下降的有力证据。来自欧洲人类的数据显示出种群数量扩张的微弱证据。
