[Role of epidemiological models in surveillance of communicable diseases (author's transl)].

The interpretation of basic information obtained through surveillance of communicable diseases requires knowledge of the expected trend of the epidemiological phenomena under observation. The more precise the epidemiological forecasts are, the more efficient the methods of surveillance will be. With a few examples the author describes briefly the role of epidemiological models to produce reliable previsions, the principles ruling their construction, their use on computer to simulate known epidemiological situations as well as the impact of interventions on the disease dynamics. Mention is also made of the model contribution to the cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses of control programmes subjected to epidemiological surveillance.