Spyra K, Müller-Fahrnow W, Hansmeier T, Bentz J, Tittel B
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Abt. Versorgungssystemforschung und Qualitätssicherung.
Rehabilitation (Stuttg). 1999 Dec;38 Suppl 2:S80-5.
Regarding rehabilitation demands, macro-analytical time-series models outline a method for the estimation of effective rehabilitation needs and for explaining the magnitude of the requirements. Their range is limited, in so far as they are unable to clarify the rehabilitation requirement regarding individual micro-level behavioural aspects. For the moment the rehabilitation requirements are hidden units in the models. Differing macro-dimensions have been gradually included in the analysis. The demographic parameters of the potential patients in need of rehabilitation are the fundamental starting point. Rehabilitation requirements are increasingly modelled by the magnitude of the curative requirements. These are characterised in the rehabilitation as "preliminary or follow up". Two examples of simple time-series models in rehabilitation--for the development of rehabilitation demand--illustrate empirically, which possibilities and boundaries are set in view of demographic and curative requirements by the interpretative range of the macro-concepts. What is methodically interesting with it, is how the analytical borders of such time-series models can experience a recognisable theoretical broadening, through a projection in real logistical facts--here in the interaction between prognosis and retrospection.
关于康复需求，宏观分析时间序列模型概述了一种估计有效康复需求以及解释需求规模的方法。其范围有限，因为它们无法阐明关于个体微观层面行为方面的康复需求。目前，康复需求是模型中的隐藏单元。不同的宏观维度已逐渐纳入分析之中。潜在康复患者的人口统计学参数是基本出发点。康复需求越来越多地由治疗需求的规模来建模。这些在康复中被表征为“前期或后续”。康复中两个简单时间序列模型（用于康复需求的发展）的例子，从经验上说明了宏观概念的解释范围在人口统计学和治疗需求方面设定了哪些可能性和界限。其中在方法上有趣的是，此类时间序列模型的分析边界如何通过在实际后勤事实中的投射——在此处是预后与回顾之间的相互作用——经历可识别的理论拓展。
