Beck J D, McGill J T
J Public Health Dent. 1976 Summer;36(3):171-81. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-7325.1976.tb02593.x.
The usefulness of manpower projections are reviewed and methodologies for projecting are reviewed. Estimates of current (1975) and projected (1990) surpluses and deficits of dentists are presented for Illinois. The model used to derive these estimates has the following characteristics. 1. Only generally available data are used. 2. Mortality rates of dentists, production and retention of new dentists, dental productivity by age, and immigration of dentists are all accounted for. 3. It is assumed that the distribution of new dentists in the future will be similar to the distribution of currently practicing dentists. 4. The assumptions regarding the demand variables of dental productivity and patient visits per person per year can be varied according to the specific situation.
对人力预测的效用以及预测方法进行了回顾。给出了伊利诺伊州当前（1975年）和预计（1990年）牙医的盈余和短缺估计。用于得出这些估计的模型具有以下特点。1. 仅使用普遍可得的数据。2. 考虑了牙医的死亡率、新牙医的产出和留存率、按年龄划分的牙医生产率以及牙医的移民情况。3. 假设未来新牙医的分布将与当前执业牙医的分布相似。4. 关于牙医生产率和每人每年患者就诊次数等需求变量的假设可根据具体情况进行调整。
