基于日本艾滋病病毒/艾滋病监测数据的艾滋病病毒和艾滋病流行趋势。

Matsuyama Y, Hashimoto S, Ichikawa S, Nakamura Y, Kidokoro T, Umeda T, Kamakura M, Kimura S, Fukutomi K, Ikeda C, Kihara M

Biostatistics/Epidemiology and Preventive Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences and Nursing, University of Tokyo, Japan.

Int J Epidemiol. 1999 Dec;28(6):1149-55. doi: 10.1093/ije/28.6.1149.

BACKGROUND

In recent years a decline in the number of new AIDS cases has been observed in several industrialized countries. It is important to know whether these recent trends observed in North America and Europe are also occurring in Japan.

METHODS

The number of people reported with HIV and AIDS by nationality, route of infection, and sex was calculated based on the HIV/AIDS surveillance data available in Japan through December 1997. The effect of reporting delay, which was defined as those HIV and AIDS cases reported in the calendar year following diagnosis, on the trends was examined. The coverage rate in reporting HIV cases was estimated as the ratio of the reported AIDS cases with prior report as an HIV-positive to the total number of reported AIDS cases.

RESULTS

The cumulative number of reported cases of HIV among Japanese and non-Japanese residents of Japan up to the end of 1997 were 1,300 and 1,190, respectively. The cumulative number of reported cases of AIDS among Japanese and non-Japanese up to the end of 1997 were 758 and 298, respectively. The number of reported cases of HIV among Japanese was found to be still increasing, with the major contribution from male cases. The increasing trend in the number of reported AIDS cases among Japanese began to slow in 1996 and 1997. The number of reported cases of HIV among non-Japanese residents of Japan peaked in 1992, and has decreased since then, and remained constant after 1994. In contrast, the number of reported AIDS cases among these non-Japanese tended to increase gradually. There was a slight reporting delay for people with HIV and AIDS. The estimated coverage rate in reporting HIV cases tended to decrease in 1996 and 1997 (1/7.2, 1/10.2, respectively). We point out several reasons for this recent decline and suggest the possibility of an ostensible decline in the estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest that the number of people with HIV among Japanese has continued to increase, and that the increase in the number of AIDS cases among Japanese is now slowing.

背景

近年来，在几个工业化国家中，新艾滋病病例的数量有所下降。了解在北美和欧洲观察到的这些近期趋势在日本是否也同样存在很重要。

方法

根据日本截至1997年12月的艾滋病毒/艾滋病监测数据，计算按国籍、感染途径和性别报告的艾滋病毒和艾滋病患者人数。研究了报告延迟（定义为诊断后在日历年报告的艾滋病毒和艾滋病病例）对趋势的影响。将报告艾滋病毒病例的覆盖率估计为先前报告为艾滋病毒阳性的报告艾滋病病例数与报告艾滋病病例总数的比率。

结果

截至1997年底，日本本国居民和在日非本国居民报告的艾滋病毒累计病例数分别为1300例和1190例。截至1997年底，日本本国居民和在日非本国居民报告的艾滋病累计病例数分别为758例和298例。发现日本本国居民报告的艾滋病毒病例数仍在增加，主要是男性病例。1996年和1997年，日本本国居民报告的艾滋病病例数的增长趋势开始放缓。在日非本国居民报告的艾滋病毒病例数在1992年达到峰值，此后有所下降，1994年后保持稳定。相比之下，这些非本国居民报告的艾滋病病例数则呈逐渐上升趋势。艾滋病毒和艾滋病患者存在轻微的报告延迟。1996年和1997年报告艾滋病毒病例的估计覆盖率趋于下降（分别为1/7.2、1/10.2）。我们指出了近期下降的几个原因，并提出了估计数表面下降的可能性。