Pearse W H, Gant N F, Hagner A P
Jacobs Institute of Women's Health, Washington, DC 20024, USA.
Obstet Gynecol. 2000 Feb;95(2):312-4. doi: 10.1016/s0029-7844(99)00545-1.
To project the future supply of practicing subspecialists in obstetrics and gynecology based on the most recent numbers of physicians entering fellowships.
A discrete actuarial model was developed, and supply projections were examined using 1999 subspecialty fellowship numbers from the American Board of Obstetrics and Gynecology.
The numbers of obstetrician-gynecologists entering subspecialty fellowships in maternal-fetal medicine (MFM) and reproductive endocrinology-infertility (REI) declined sharply between 1994 and 1999. There was a slow increase in gynecologic oncology (GO) fellows. Projections show that the numbers of practicing MFM and GO subspecialists will double by 2020, but they will be serving a 20% larger female population in the United States. Numbers of practicing REI subspecialists will increase slowly.
The number of fellows in GO continues to enlarge progressively though slightly, whereas those in MFM and REI have fallen sharply in recent years. Among four possible factors affecting growth or decline, the ones that seem most important are existing career opportunities for both generalist and subspecialist obstetrician-gynecologists and the length of subspecialty education.
根据进入专科 fellowship 的医生最新人数，预测未来妇产科专科医生的供应情况。
建立了一个离散精算模型，并使用美国妇产科委员会 1999 年的专科 fellowship 人数来检验供应预测。
1994 年至 1999 年期间，进入母胎医学（MFM）和生殖内分泌与不孕症（REI）专科 fellowship 的妇产科医生人数急剧下降。妇科肿瘤学（GO）专科 fellowship 的人数缓慢增加。预测显示，到 2020 年，执业的 MFM 和 GO 专科医生人数将翻倍，但他们将为美国多 20%的女性人口提供服务。执业的 REI 专科医生人数将缓慢增加。
GO 专科 fellowship 的人数虽然增长缓慢但持续逐步增加，而 MFM 和 REI 专科 fellowship 的人数近年来急剧下降。在影响增长或下降的四个可能因素中，最重要的似乎是普通妇产科医生和专科妇产科医生现有的职业机会以及专科教育的时长。
